Did my 2012 predictions come true?

endof2012

As all four of our loyal readers may recall (I include our staff and my wife in that count), I made a series of predictions before the start of 2012. We’re a few months into 2013, but I want to look back on those predictions. Am I a sham? Or should you just call me NostraDANmus? (Moving on…)

Instead of a simple “yes” or “no,” I’ve decided to give each prediction a score, as outlined below:

  • A – The prediction came true.
  • B – The prediction came mostly true, or the spirit of the prediciton came true.
  • C – The prediction came partially true.
  • D – The prediction only came true in minor ways.
  • F – The prediction did not come true.
  • I The prediction was not relevant in 2012 (or early 2013).

So, let’s move on to each of my predictions. How did I do?

  1. JK Rowling will announce a non-Harry Potter project.
    Grade: A
    Not only did she announce it, she released it!
  2. One of the following people will die: Chuck Berry, Elton John, Billy Joel, Ringo Starr, Keith Richards, Mick Jagger, Bob Dylan, Little Richard, Aretha Franklin, Stevie Wonder, David Bowie.
    Grade:
    F
    None of these people died. None of them had serious bouts with illness or danger, either, as far as I can tell.
  3. One of the following people will have a big public meltdown (an arrest could be involved): Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, The Situation, Jennifer Aniston, John Mayer, Ashton Kutcher, Kim Kardashian, Katy Perry, Paula Abdul, Steven Tyler.
    Grade:
    F
    This was one of the stupider entries. I predicted that young and/or volatile celebrities may not cope with stress and the spotlight very well? How daring of me. Most of these people actually had pretty good years — Lady Gaga put on some weight, and I think Steven Tyler flipped out on paparazzi in Hawaii or something. No Sheen-esque meltdowns here, though.
  4. The Dark Knight Rises will get an 84% on Rotten Tomatoes; Brave, meanwhile, will earn an impressive 94%.
    Grade: C
    I was within 3% of TDKR (87%). Way off on Brave (78%).
  5. At least six sports-related child abuse scandals will emerge — at least one of them major
    Grade: D
    In the wake of the Sandusky scandal, a few more scandals leaked related to coaches abusing kids. This continued a bit into 2012, but trickled off. The last time something like this happened (I’m thinking of the US Catholic Church) the floodgates really opened over the next year, but that didn’t happen here, thank goodness.
  6. There will be a failed assassination attempt on a major public figure.
    Grade: F
    No dice on this one, fortunately.
  7. Major competitors to both Steam and NetFlix streaming will emerge, and they’ll both be Amazon, which will release a slick, unified content manager.
    Grade: C
    Amazon’s presence in both digital game distribution and movie streaming continued to build in 2012. However, they did not release a “slick, unified content manager,” nor did they really make a quantum leap in market share.
  8. I will get married
    Grade: 
    A
    Cheating, but yeah.
  9. At least half of the following long-running comedies will announce a date or a year of their final episode: The Office, How I Met Your Mother, Two and a Half Men, iCarly, South Park, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, The Daily Show, The Simpsons, South Park, 30 Rock.
    Grade: B
    Of that list, The Office, iCarly, and 30 Rock each formally announced finales in 2012. iCarly’s actually aired in 2012; 30 Rock’s aired in early 2013. HIMYM, meanwhile, seemed to imply that Season 8 would be the last one for most of the year until they were renewed in January 2013 for a final ninth season. South Park tangoed with the issue, too, but got a long-term renewal. From that I’ll count that as 3.5 out of 10. We didn’t quite hit the 5 I targeted, but that was quite a high bar, so I’ll give the prediction a B. The spirit of my prediction, that an entire generation of TV comedy is about to leave a huge void in a somewhat concentrated period of time, is at least somewhat true.
  10. There will be a major Facebook backlash. And a sexy new competitor with a name of five characters or less will emerge.
    Grade: D
    Tumblr continued a steady upward climb, but the social networking service that really burst out of the gate was Pinterest. At the beginning of 2011, Pinterest had about 10,000 members. At the beginning of 2012, it had about 11.2 million users. By 2013, that number was up to about 50 million. More than that, traffic was astonishing in 2012: according to Alexa Page Rank, Pinterest is now the 34th most visited web site in the world! While it’s certainly nabbed some users from facebook and other social media sites like reddit, Pinterest is barely a blip on facebook’s radar. The #2 most visited site in the world cracked 1 billion active users per month. That is unprecedented. If either Tumblr or Pinterest had five or fewer characters, I’d grade this prediction a C (I choose not to count Vine as a “sexy new competitor”).
  11. Relient K will release a top-ten album and a top-twenty single; I think it will be a back-to-basics album packed with catchy hooks that will make some radio noise.
    Grade: I
    Relient K’s album got pushed back to 2013 (which I suppose means that I should give this an ‘F’, but I’m holding out hope), so we don’t yet know if the new release will be a sleeper hit as I think it will. Their work with breakthrough success Owl City and their “little something,” which could certainly have radio legs, are encouraging data points for this prediction.
  12. The world will not end
    Grade: 
    A
    Cheating, but yeah
  13. Mass Effect 3 will earn an 89 on MetaCritic, far from the year’s best score, but will go down as the 2012′s best game
    Grade: B
    First of all, I nailed the Metacritic score. It scored a few points higher on consoles (93), but PC is my gaming outlet of choice, so I’m going to stick with the 89. The critical praise was nearly unanimous. But will ME3 go down as 2012’s best game? Probably not. Most outlets picked the unconventional Journey as the best game of the year. Practically nobody selected on Mass Effect 3 as 2012’s best, despite its ambition and the immense critical love for it. The reason is the ending: there was an unprecedented backlash against the way the story ended. While that means people were disappointed, it also means that the series up to that point connected with people so strongly that the game could provoke that reaction. I think time will be kind to the game (the game’s DLC has mitigated many of the original complaints), and it was my favorite from 2012, but I can’t grade this one an A.
  14. A non-SEC team will win the national title. And I have an inkling it will unexpectedly be Boise State.
    Grade: D
    Come on, Notre Dame! You came so very close, then Lenny Kekua ruined you. Oh well.
  15. 2012 will be remembered as a fantastic year for movies, music, games, television, and writing.
    Grade: C
    Too early to tell for sure, but from my perspective, 2012 was solid but not great. I still think it was better than 2011, but 2010 still blows the doors off of it as far as I’m concerned. Granted, I didn’t peruse everything (or even the essentials) in every media, but 2010 is still the high mark for the past few years: Toy Story 3, Mass Effect 2, The Social Network, Parks and Rec S2, Party Down S2, Community S1, Kanye’s masterpiece, etc. I was hoping 2012 would thrill me in a similar way, but it didn’t. There’s always 2013!

GPA: 1.93, a C average. It’s probably the best I could have hoped for: Not a prophet, but not a total moron, either. It’s too late for me to make 2013 predictions, but maybe I will repeat this exercise in the future.

Dan S.

Dan is the editor of Earn This. He co-founded the site in 2009.

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